Potential and Economic Analysis of Solar-to-Hydrogen Production in the Sultanate of Oman
Hydrogen production using renewable power is becoming an essential pillar for future sustainable energy sector development worldwide. The Sultanate of Oman is presently integrating renewable power generations with a large share of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. The possibility of using the solar potential of the Sultanate can increase energy security and contribute to the development of the sustainable energy sector not only for the country but also for the international community.
Proffessor Razzaqul Ahshan, from the Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, College of Engineering, Sultan Qaboos University has published a study that presents the hydrogen production potential using solar resources available in the Sultanate. About 15 locations throughout the Sultanate are considered to assess the hydrogen production opportunity using a solar PV system.
A rank of merit order of the locations for producing hydrogen is identified. It reveals that Thumrait and Marmul are the most suitable locations, whereas Sur is the least qualified. This study also assesses the economic feasibility of hydrogen production, which shows that the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) in the most suitable site, Thumrait, is 6.31 USD/kg. The LCOH in the least convenient location, Sur, is 7.32 USD/kg. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is performed to reveal the most significant influential factor affecting the future’s green hydrogen production cost. The findings indicate that green hydrogen production using solar power in the Sultanate is promising, and the LCOH is consistent with other studies worldwide.
This paper has presented a techno-economic analysis of producing green hydrogen using solar photovoltaic power in the Sultanate of Oman. The analysis process includes energy production evaluation of a photovoltaic power plant, hydrogen generation quantification, and assessing electricity cost, green hydrogen production cost, and environmental impact. The study is conducted for 15 different locations in Oman with a large-size (2000 kW) photovoltaic plant. The inclusion of intermittent solar radiation and varying temperature conditions into the energy production evaluation process of the solar photovoltaic plant ensures accurate energy determination. Such accuracy is confirmed by comparing the photovoltaic plant capacity factor found in this study with those available in the literature. The produced hydrogen quantification process has used this calculated energy amount instead of the estimated energy based on assuming a capacity factor.
Thumrait has been revealed as the most suitable green hydrogen generation location, producing 62,557 kg/year for the selected photovoltaic power plant. On the contrary, Sur has been unveiled as the least qualified site of green hydrogen production with 46,491 kg/year for the same photovoltaic power plant. Based on the amount of annual hydrogen production, a ranking of suitable locations is provided in this study. It is indicated that a location with higher solar radiation may not produce more green hydrogen fuel because of the higher ambient temperature in the site that causes a decline in the plant energy production, hence, hydrogen production. In addition, factors that may influence hydrogen production, cost, and emission are dust, cloud, shadow, and solar eclipse, which directly affect solar power production.
Furthermore, the analysis process has evaluated the cost of energy production from a solar photovoltaic plant instead of assuming the electricity cost for the electrolyser. The levelized cost of energy from the photovoltaic plant has been found to be 0.0554 to 0.0745 USD/kWh. The economic analysis of hydrogen production has utilised this electricity cost to determine the production cost of green hydrogen based on solar photovoltaic power. It was shown that the hydrogen production cost for the selected locations in Oman is in the range of 6.31 to 7.32 USD/kg. The obtained range of hydrogen production costs shows consistency with the hydrogen production costs reported in the other studies. Thumrait has the highest potential of producing green hydrogen fuel with a cost of 6.31 USD/kg, and Sur has the least potential with a cost of 7.32 USD/kg. Similar solar radiation and temperature profiles of any other candidate locations in Oman are comparable with the presented sites in this study to find their potentiality of producing green hydrogen. Otherwise, the illustrated analysis process can be applied to identify the potentiality of any other candidate locations in Oman and beyond, given that the source of electricity is based on a solar photovoltaic plant.
Cost of hydrogen production using the solar PV plant at 15 different locations. Image Source: Razzaqul Ahshan
In addition, a sensitivity analysis has been performed on hydrogen production cost as the last step of the analysis process in this study. The sensitivity analysis has revealed that the electricity cost has a notable influence in calculating the production cost of hydrogen followed by the capital cost of the electrolyser. A consolidated yearly cost decline rate of 3% in capital cost and 4% in electricity cost unveils a hydrogen production cost decline of 45.96% in 20 years. The fruitful cognisance obtained through this study provides an assessment process for researchers, industry, energy stakeholders, and energy policymakers on solar photovoltaic-to-hydrogen potential, cost of hydrogen production, and cost variables to identify critical ones for a hot and humid condition, like the Sultanate of Oman.
The life cycle costing approach is a holistic and comprehensive method utilised to evaluate the economics of hydrogen production in this study. However, the methodology uses future estimated data since the electrolysis-based hydrogen production technology is yet to be in the expansion stage. As a result, uncertain assumptions on some of the fundamental cost data were unavoidable.
Only a solar-based hydrogen production system is limited to a low utilisation factor, which requires an increased size of the electrolyser. A hydrogen production system may need to be designed with a higher utilisation factor of the electrolyser; thus, the size and cost of the hydrogen production system can be reduced, which will be further investigated in general and specifically in Omani conditions.
The main technical-economic results of this study are illustrated in the paper “Potential and Economic Analysis of Solar-to-Hydrogen Production in the Sultanate of Oman” published in Renewable Energy Sources and Sustainability.
